![]() altogether – something that was unthinkable two days ago. Consequently, today’s multi-model ensemble guidance has shifted to the north and east, and, depending on when Dorian turns and how quickly it accelerates northeast, it may just miss the U.S.Because of Dorian’s slower forward speed, the multi-model ensemble guidance in the past 24 hours quickly picked up on the potential for the system to turn north much sooner than previously anticipated.Through Wednesday and Thursday, the farthest extent of the five-day density plot became fixated on Florida, giving a first indication that Dorian’s forward speed might reduce as it tracked nearer the southeastern U.S.The multi-model ensembles have been consistent for at least the past six days in bringing Dorian through the northern Bahamas towards the U.S.There are several key takeaways from the evolution of the RMS HWind density plots: Each density plot represents a different initialization time covering the period between Sunday, August 25 to 00:00 UTC today, Saturday, August 31. These are informed by over 100 multi-model ensemble members and denote where there is a five percent or greater probability of the center tracking within 50 nautical miles of a given location. ![]() To visualize how the multi-model ensemble forecasts have been trending in recent days, we can look at the evolution of the RMS HWind 5-day forecast track density plot – see below. With a faster forward track like the one forecast earlier this week, Dorian may not have had an opportunity to turn north and would have made landfall over southern Florida and could even traversed into the Gulf of Mexico.Īs is the case with Dorian, when the track forecasts are highly uncertain due to complex steering patterns or when there are multiple plausible solutions presented by the multi-model ensembles, it is sometimes best to look beyond the specific details of the deterministic solutions or individual ensemble members and instead evaluate the overall trends in the forecasts. ![]() The later arrival time into the Bahamas has meant that the projected weakening of the mid-tropospheric ridge located near Bermuda is expected to allow Dorian to begin to turn north once it exits the northern Bahamas on Monday evening. This has had significant knock-on effects for the rest of the forecast. So, why have the forecasts been so uncertain? It’s all to do with timing.ĭorian’s expected forward speed through the northern Bahamas is now much slower than was anticipated four days ago. Now, Dorian looks more likely to make landfall in the Carolinas, or, as some models increasingly suggest, it may recurve soon enough that is misses the U.S. Several days ago, Florida was bracing itself for potentially its third major hurricane landfall in as many years. The meteorological situation that Hurricane Dorian finds itself in is as fascinating as it is uncertain. Understanding the Uncertainty: A Matter of Timing impacts remain significantly uncertain, with the latest guidance providing a twist in the tale that no one anticipated a few days ago. Hurricane Dorian looks set to pass over the northern Bahamas in the coming days as potentially a Category 5 major hurricane, but forecasts regarding future U.S.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |